Finally, after eight months, I have made my way back to New York City. For almost the last decade I have called NYC home, but my recent move to Florida has given me some insights on the city that never sleeps.
It’s an odd time for NYC. The media elite have pumped the population full of fear of COVID and angst over social justice issues. Midtown’s gravitational pull on young people of a certain class is lessening as work from home is becoming the white collar modus operandi.
To be clear there is optimism in the air. My interactions with people have been more polite, more caring, more pleasant than they were in 2019. Outdoor cafe tables are full as the city breaths (literally) a sigh of relief as the mask mandates come to an end.
My intention is to neither write an apocalyptic piece on the decline of a great city nor cheerlead a progressive Marxist fever dream. There seems to be a split happening, spread out areas like Brooklyn flourish while dense Manhattan has to deal more intensely with the consequences of the last year and a half.
Brooklyn Hipsterdom Rides On
I keep an apartment in Williamsburg Brooklyn, the heart of millennial hipsterdom and everything seems fine here. In fact, I get the impression that recent changes have only boosted the neighborhood.
Claustrophobia during lockdown has pushed many out of Manhattan into Brooklyn. If you are not ready to leave the city just yet, Brooklyn can serve as the gateway drug to suburbanism. Some find the porridge is just right in the slightly decompressed outer borough and settle permanently. Williamsburg, in particular, has seen purchase prices rise and rents stay steady in a downward trending market.
When you think of Brooklyn, you are probably thinking about Williamsburg. Just across the East River from Manhattan, the neighborhood has transformed from an industrial wasteland into a luxurious yuppy paradise in a little under 20 years. There are endless options for kale smoothies, hand rolled udon noodles, and cardio kickboxing. When you are tired you can retreat to your condo to rewatch Tiger King.
Most residents are white, educated, and liberal. They are the sort of people who have Hillary bumper stickers but confess to being pro Bernie after a couple Sav Blancs. In their eyes the borough is a progressive utopia. The policies and legacies, however, that drove and are driving Williamsburg’s expansion are anything but progressive.
It starts with rezoning. In 2005 much of Williamsburg’s industrial area was rezoned for residential use. New York City is crowded, and there is little room to build. Also the city is famous for its NIMBY residents, who will always oppose noisy construction making their property less exclusive. Demolishing old buildings for new condos is the polar opposite of the rent control policies pushed by progressives over generations. Unused industrial space is the perfect solution.
A growing problem for New York, and blue states in general, is homelessness. Because it was originally for industrial use, Williamsburg does not have legacy services that cater to and attract a homeless population. Without homeless services, magically there are no homeless.
Like Miami, a lot of Williamsburg’s development is also driven by tax incentives. Mayor Bloomberg, with a visceral understanding of free markets, knew that it was key to increase the housing supply. To encourage developers in the 2000s to take a risk on Williamsburg he gave them 20-35 year tax abatements from the famously high New York City taxes. This is passed on to the homeowner, who can afford a higher mortgage without the added tax burden.
Williamsburg is now a paradise of new housing. Close to the water, a South Beach north dynamic is emerging. Luxurious hip hotels line Wythe, featuring rooftop lounges and swimming pools taking advantage of the view. European tourists, maybe on their third New York trip, want to evangelize the “tres Brooklyn” aesthetic.
Further inland are leafy neighborhoods full of earth tone wearing professionals, flaunting hints of affluence with vintage Rolex submariners and Upababy strollers.
After COVID these trends are only increasing. Walking around the streets of Williamsburg I see new restaurants, not empty fronts. Talking with people, they are focused on hot vax summer, not social justice and mask politics.
Manhattan In Decline
Manhattan has suffered the most during Covid, particularly midtown. The area from 14th street to 59th street in Manhattan is the heart of the city. In this area bankers make deals while fashion houses launch new seasons and real estate tycoon construct towers for billionaires both foreign and domestic.
The show MadMen perfectly depicts midtown. A cold power hungry center of the universe, where nihilistic yet stylish urban professionals compete for money, power, and sex. That, at least, is what it was.
Even now the streets are eerily quiet. They have people but not as many as before. Those people do not rush with the frenetic energy of yore, they are not propelled by the invisible New York hustle. Instead they amble and saunter taking in the sights, enjoying life.
More pleasant, yes, but in aggregate the sparks seem to be gone. This leaves me to wonder what the future will hold. Will we return to offices in the same way they were inhabited before?
Downtown has fared better.
The young and beautiful have returned and are peacocking all over lower Manhattan. The fashion may be more athleisure and less black leather, but it’s still pricey. Sipping cocktails, now a couple bucks more expensive, they express joy that COVID is over while jockeying over Hamptons sublets for Summer.
However, cracks in the facade are emerging.
The first major one is crime. According to the NYPD, for the month of May 2021, overall index crime in New York City rose 22% compared with May 2020, driven by a 46.7% increase in robbery (1,182 v. 806) and a 35.6% increase in grand larceny (2,848 v. 2,101). Not that it’s unsafe persay, but women hold their bags closer than before, when in doubt they Uber instead of subwaying.
This is not good in a city that has seen plummeting crime over the last decades. The bleak 70s are not as far away as people pretend. Homelessness is also an increasingly urgent issue.
In some ways homelessness has always been a downtown problem. Like “Skid row” in LA, the Bowery along the Lower East side is synonymous for being down on your luck. But after decades of improvement things are getting bad once again.
Homeless encampments, growing like mushrooms under awnings and construction, now force you to constantly cross the street. Panhandlers ask for money and stare you down at those sceney cafes. Most seem to be mentally ill, drug addicted or both. I have compassion for the individual homeless person, but as a group they can easily sink an area’s ship. It is difficult to maintain an outdoor cafe with a hobo shooting up and pissing next to your tables. Sorry but it’s true.
Where do we go from here
The game has yet to play out for NYC. Right now the mayor's race looks promising, with competent and tough on crime Eric Adams in the lead. People may like the idea of progressivism, but at the end of the day they really want middle of the road democrats.
Culturally the city is also at a crossroads. Will it stay the center of the capitalist universe or will it become a charming museum for tourists and legacy residents like London and Paris?
To stay competitive the city needs to reign in taxes and regulations, build lots more housing, and double down on public safety.
The new digital age is evolving into a direct threat. The Internet createators connect in the virtual world and have no need to be in a costly and challenging city. Up until this point the online world was a reflection of the IRL world. Now the digital world is becoming reality. Financial, legal, and professional services are more stoutly committed to the city’s but working from home has become awfully appealing to many of their employees.
On the other hand, urban living is appealing. There are not many places in the United States where you can stroll endless charming blocks with your pick of soy lattes.
I am not sure about the future of New York, but for now I am enjoying sunny and warm June days. The future is not here yet, but I hope this city has what it takes to stay relevant.