It’s been a while since my last post, but like many of you I’m having a hard time keeping my mind off the news. The events in Ukraine have been truly terrifying. Inflation is something more pedestrian, but that haunts us ever day. China is looking on, excited for it’s ascendant new roll.
I recently wrote an interview for a Croatian newspaper on all these topics, the answers are below. Please let me know what you think in the comments.
How do you think Americans reacted to the news Russia invaded Ukraine?
To be honest a lot of Americans I think are pretty oblivious to the world outside the U.S. For the chattering classes of journalists and foreign policy experts, as well as those with direct ties to Ukraine, it was pretty terrifying.
Most millennials and Gen Zers have grown up in an age of unquestioned American hegemony on the global stage. It’s so common they might not even have realized things could be another way. U.S. dominance was like a law of physics. One country invading another seems like an event from a different era.
Unfortunately America’s “end of history moment” is coming to an end. In this new epoch we will all have to re-examine our place in the world. Voters have a choice, fight to maintain preeminence or shift into a comfortable social democracy in a multipolar world.
Is there a fear in the US that the country might go back to a cold war mentality?
I’m not sure the U.S. is afraid of going back to a Cold War mentality. Russia is not a real challenge directly to us. With social media and our interconnectedness it seems hard to have that sort of division. American culture is hard to stop as well. Russian teens will still want IPhones and Nikes.
China seems to be the real question. I feel like we may be approaching a mini cold war for dominance in Asia, but don’t forget the U.S. has strong allies in Korea, Japan, Australia. It’s not just the U.S. taking on China in the region and our military is still a good deterrent.
Also I feel like China’s economy is overrated. One recent study says 29% of their GDP is real estate, a lot of empty towers being built to keep up the illusion of growth. They will soon face a demographic crisis because of the one child policy. Lots of poor angry single young men are never good for a society, I feel like this has been a big driver for instability in the Arab world for a long time. I just hope China does not turn future frustrations outward.
Nothing’s ever the same, but I think we’re in an era totally different from the cold war. 2020 was the true start of the 21st century and it would be interesting to hear the labels scholars and writers in the 22nd century come up with.
How do Americans now see the threat of nuclear war? What is the atmosphere in that regard?
All out war is a scary idea. We’ve been trained for most of the Cold War to see it in the words of Tom Clancy as “the sum of all fears”. Americans find it hard to wrap their head around what’s going on, that we’re facing this with Russia in 2022. People are thinking, didn’t we beat them already, why are we even worrying about this salvage yard of a country with a GDP smaller than New York State?
No one wants nuclear conflict, but Putin is willing to make a bluff too expensive for any American politician to call, especially over the Ukraine.
What is the main focus of the American public - rising prices because of war, fear of a wider war, nuclear threat?
In terms of the current conflict in Ukraine I think the idea of nuclear conflict is probably the focus for most Americans. The war is having a small impact on the American economy, mostly exacerbating inflation trends already happening. Broader regional confrontation in Europe is a bit obtuse for most Americans. Getting blown up in nuclear armageddon, however, really hits home.
How did you personally view the invasion?
I was personally shocked by the invasion. My view had been Putin was rattling his saber, trying to extract territorial concessions from Ukraine through sheer bullying and maybe a small military operation.
A couple images in particular have been shocking to me personally. It’s jarring to see death and destruction so close to western modernity. Explosions alongside yoga studios, dead bodies next to coffee shops. There’s a viral TikTok going around from a Ukrainian influencer showing her life before and after the war. The before was eerily similar to my lifestyle.
Most of my life has been framed by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq but those felt somehow very far away. Ukraine feels close to home.
Speaking of close to home, many people in my life have close Ukrainian roots. Lots of Ukrainians came to the United States in the 80s and 90s, and their reach goes farther than you might expect. Seeing a friend ask for help for his great uncle sent shivers down my spine.
On the flip side I live in Miami, alongside many Russians now on global sanctions lists. A few weeks before the invasion I was at the opening of a new nightclub called Rasputin which catered to them. Champagne and Vodka flowed and there were heaping piles of Caviar on all the plates. I wonder where this crowd is now?
How do you think Biden is handling this crisis, by far the most important of his term?
I think you can split his management of the crisis into two parts, before and after the invasion.
Before the invasion I think he did a terrible job. Biden was too timid to even hint at getting involved as a means of deterrent. He basically up and told Putin what the United States planned to do (or not do). Showing your hand at the start is not a good poker strategy.
This is where Trump has a point. I don’t think Putin would have invaded with Trump because he would not have been able to predict what the previous president would do. I think Biden’s bureaucratic nature is not good for power politics. Also, I think we are seeing exactly how right Trump was to push Europe to take responsibility for its own defenses and wean itself off Russian oil.
Now that the war has started Biden is doing as well as can be expected. In the end it’s too dangerous to call Putin’s bluff and become directly involved militarily in the conflict. The sanctions seem to be working and I’ve been impressed with the unified front the west is putting up. It’s heartening to see us working together again.
Until recently, Russia was in the US mostly as a point of divide - Russiagate, 2016 election, supposed links to Trump... Do you think that will change?
I don’t think there is a big divide over Russia at the moment. Both Republicans and Democrats agree Putin is a bad actor and that we need aggressive sanctions against Russia. By and large they both agree that direct military intervention is not the right path. There are a few scary exceptions to this on both sides.
Trump had less provocative rhetoric on Putin than the Democrats. It’s funny that despite all the criticism Trump was actually much more peace focused than the blue hawks. Normalizing relations with adversaries, despite what’s happening in Ukraine, still seems like a better path than confrontation. America’s soft power can be far greater than it’s hard power.
At this point we know Russiagate was dreamed up inside the Clinton campaign. I think it's scandalous, but not surprising from the radical left mainstream media, that this has not gotten more attention.
How is inflation affecting the US and what is the difference between red and blue states?
Right now I think inflation is by far the number one issue for most Americans. Driving home from the gym this morning, there were literally several news crews filming gas prices that approached six dollars a gallon. I just spoke with one friend who had to trade in his car because he could not afford the fuel.
Speaking of cars, new vehicles are going for well over their retail prices making reliable transportation difficult to obtain. Inflation in shipping costs has crushed another friend's business. Anecdotally, restaurant bills feel much higher and I need to hold my breath at the grocery check out.
The government may say inflation is 7.8% (already high) but the money supply has increased by a giant amount. All that cash has to go somewhere. The middle class is getting crushed, as their salaries don’t keep up with asset prices.
Red states, because prices and taxes are lower, are doing better than Blue states. Taxes and regulation are already forcing Americans to flee New York, California and Illinois for Florida and Texas. I get the feeling we’re reaching a breaking point and these blue strongholds will have to reevaluate their politics.
This issue will be the downfall of Joe Biden, and it’s his fault to a large extent. He pushed through major spending when the economy was already overheated. The party has to end sometime
Andrew, I am truly grateful for your thoughtful article. I recently severed my cable tv access and for mental health preservation, try to avoid news, since post 2020 election & Covid has just become fear mongering and sensationalism (with cute pet stories in their attempt to 'stick the landing' as their broadcast finales). Your points regarding China were reassuring to me (the empty towers and disillusioned populace) as were your comments about some of the U.S.'s strong allies. I'd rather get my unbiased news from personal human touches such as yours any day of the week. Thank you again.